Archive for August, 2006

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Coming soon to a mailbox near you

Wednesday, August 30th, 2006

There’re a few really good reasons to open your printed issue of Impact this week (you should have it by now). There are some great stories of “regular” people doing remarkable things. It’s also the Employee Service Day issue, and it’s always fun to look for names of people you know (or maybe yourself). And, you may have been hearing the mysterious acronym “HCM” (It stands for always-strikes-me-as-odd “Human Capital Management”–the people part of the PeopleSoft system). One of the things we’ll notice is a change in the way we access our electronic pay statements/stubs; another is the way the stubs look. Impact’s got an annotated peek at the new statement.

It’s going to be a change, and even though this one’s been years in the making, there’s been no shortage of change on campus this summer. But I like the way the new statement looks, I like that it’s more secure than email, and I like that I can go one place and change most of my own information, or look at past statements and accrual balances. So this payroll statement change will be OK by me. It starts in October. More information’s in Impact.   

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Beta testing

Tuesday, August 29th, 2006

If you were hoping to be the first person to drive your auto around the new University Plaza loop road, sorry. Two ladies in a blue Buick beat you to it. I saw them on my way home tonight, as the driver manuevered around the barricades and orange construction fencing trying to find her way out (she made it). A few more weeks and the road should open for real. Seen from above (check the Sealy & Smith Garage for a neat perspective), it’s really starting to look nice.    

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Foam and Grit

Tuesday, August 29th, 2006

The word on the street is that the RIF machine is winding down. It was speculated last July that most of UTMB’s job cuts would be done by the end of the fiscal year, and it looks like that’s likely to be the case. How’d we do on the numbers? Did we hit 1300?  Are there any more planned? All good topics/questions for Thursday’s Town Meeting. I think Dr. Stobo plans to spend a few minutes bringing people up to date on the RIF and plan, with at least half of the meeting reserved for Q&A.

The end of the fiscal year. That’s this week, my friends. Hard to believe another twelve months has rushed by, not unlike the sand and sea surging past our feet on a windy day walk in the shallows. When you bend over to reach for that wave as it churns round your calves and ankles, all too often you’re left with a fistful of foam and grit, and that’s what this summer has felt like: foam and grit. So although I’m not sure it was on purpose, there’s some poetic sense of closure in having a Town Meeting on the last day of the year, of this year. Maybe it’s a good time to end one chapter and start the next. And the next one will be, has to be, better.

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The blame game?

Monday, August 28th, 2006

I’m not sure how I missed this GCDN editorial on Sunday, but Michael Smith laid it out pretty well. He’s as qualified as anyone I know to do so; he’s been following and reporting on the issue of the uninsured in our county for many years. It’s worth a read…  

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Relief and guilt

Sunday, August 27th, 2006

I’m feeling guilty tonight, relieved but guilty. If you’ve been watching the weather, you know the forecast has Ernesto tracking further east, getting ready to smack Cuba, weaken, emerge in the Florida Staits and then strafe the west coast of the Sunshine State. I’m relieved that we seem to have dodged this particular wet and windy bullet. I’m relieved that the central Gulf Coast, all those people still reeling from Katrina, are probably going to be spared.  I’m not too thrilled that all the storm models seem to have converged on my brother’s backyard (he lives on upper Tampa Bay; most of my family’s in that area), but we all know the risks of ”living in paradise.” Like us when it’s our turn, he’ll probably not be sleeping too well the next few nights. Here’s what the weather guys are saying:

At 9PM CDT, Tropical Storm Ernesto was about 600 miles southeast of Miami, FL. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, mainly in squalls northeast of the center. Movement is to the northwest at 7-8 mph. Ernesto is just holding on after interacting with the mountainous terrain of Haiti through the day today. But thunderstorms are redeveloping close to Ernesto’s center, and it is quite possible that Ernesto will strengthen again before reaching southern Cuba tomorrow morning. Once over Cuba, Ernesto should steadily weaken until it moves off the northern coast on Tuesday morning. Thereafter, a cold front approaching the southeast U.S. should begin to steer Ernesto to the north-northwest and north, parallel to the western Florida Peninsula. Our forecast takes Ernesto inland near Tampa late Wednesday afternoon then off the northeast coast of Florida near Jacksonville Thursday afternoon. Our confidence in the forecast track is average to below average. The slow movement today and erratic nature of Ernesto makes for a difficult forecast.

As for intensity, we think Ernesto will increase to just below hurricane strength before it moves ashore into Cuba. We expect significant weakening as the center remains inland for 24 hours or more. It’s possible that Ernesto could weaken to a minimal tropical storm as it emerges into the Florida Straits on Tuesday. How strong Ernesto gets before reaching the Florida coast will depend on how close the center of Ernesto tracks off the west coast of Florida.

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In his own words…

Sunday, August 27th, 2006

Writer Marty Schladen with the Galveston County Daily News interviewed Dr. Stobo last week for a long story that captured part of Sunday’s front page. Schladen asked Stobo many of the questions you might have liked to, some looking back, some looking forward. See what he said…

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Introducing Ernesto..

Friday, August 25th, 2006

The tropical depression we were watching yesterday was officially upgraded to a tropical storm named Ernesto at 4 pm today (Friday). Ernesto is still a big question mark; if it survives the weekend, it may turn out to be a serious threat for someone. But it’s future is as yet uncertain. This is what the experts are saying this afternoon:

At 3PM CDT, Tropical Depression Five was about 240 miles south of Puerto Rico. Movement is to the west to west-northwest at 12-15 mph. Maximum sustained winds were recently measured by a recon plane at 40 mph. The recon plane confirmed that the depression is very disorganized, with heaviest squalls and strongest wind well removed from the low-level center. But the plane did find winds to support an upgrade to tropical storm strength, and we anticipate that the NHC will upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Ernesto on their 4pm CDT advisory. Satellite imagery indicates that strong southwesterly winds aloft continue to impact the developing storm. There is considerable doubt as to whether or not the circulation center can survive the wind shear over the next two days. It is quite possible that the depression/storm could weaken to a tropical wave over the weekend. But there may be a slightly greater chance that the center will reform eastward beneath the heavier squalls, and that is the solution that we chose on this advisory.

Latest model guidance has shifted just a little to the east, generally over western Cuba then northwestward toward the central to northeast Gulf Coast. As our previous forecast track is now to the west of most model guidance, we have made a slight eastward adjustment on the track beyond day 3. This adjustment still keeps our track on the western side of most model guidance. However, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the track forecast beyond the next 2-3 days. If the storm moves more slowly, then it would tend to track well to the west of our current forecast.

The intensity forecast is also uncertain. Currently, the forecast is for wind shear to weaken very slowly over the next 2 days. Because of persistent wind shear, we indicated only some slight strengthening over the next 2-3 days. But should the storm survive and reach the northwest Caribbean Sea late on Monday, then conditions aloft may be quite favorable for strengthening. We indicated that the storm could reach hurricane strength late on Monday, but we may be a little conservative as far as the maximum potential intensity over the warm waters of the central Gulf. If the storm survives to reach the central Gulf, then it could become significantly stronger than we’ve indicated.

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Watching the Caribbean this weekend

Thursday, August 24th, 2006

The university’s weather service is watching a system this evening. It’s still nothing to worry about, but I’ve been fooling myself into believing things will stay quiet all season. Much as we’d all like that, chances are they will not, and whether this threatens us or anyone else, or turns into nothing, it’s always a good idea to make sure our plans and preparations are in order. In my case, I’ve got a few things to do yet.  A few weeks ago we posted the state evacuation routes and contraflow plans; they’re on our hurricane preparedness site. This is what the weather guys are saying Thursday afternoon:

 At 4PM CDT, Tropical Depression Five was located about 105 miles southwest of the island of St. Lucia. Movement is to the west at 20-22 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. Our forecast takes the developing tropical storm to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan Straits by late Tuesday morning. Confidence in this forecast track is about average.

Conditions are favorable for gradual strengthening over the next several days, and we think that the depression will likely become a tropical storm tonight. Once the storm reaches the northwest Caribbean Sea on Monday night there is some question about the amount of wind shear that it will encounter. We indicated continued slow development on Monday and Tuesday, taking the system to minimal hurricane strength on Tuesday. However, our confidence in the intensity forecast is low. Once the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon, conditions aloft should be more favorable for intensification, and it’s likely that hurricane strength will be reached in the south-central Gulf of Mexico.

As far as any potential landfall in on the Gulf Coast, there are indications of a high pressure area over the southeast U.S. by early next week. This should keep the storm moving on a general west-northwest track beyond day 5 of the forecast. The greatest risk for an eventual landfall would be from northern Mexico to the mid Louisiana coast around next Thursday.

 

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Odds & Ends

Wednesday, August 23rd, 2006

I’m going to try and do my annual compliance training tonight, so this wil be an abbreviated post. (Have you done your required training? Check here: http://training.utmb.edu/ You only have until Aug. 31.)

We updated Rumors or Trumors II this afternoon: http://www.utmb.edu/rumor2/seerumors.htm

I heard today that the loop road around University Plaza isn’t going to open at the end of this month as had been predicted. It’ll probably be ready, but the environmental health/infection control folks are concerned about plans to open the Waverley Smith entrance and the road while there’s still earth being moved around and major landscaping to be done. (For the well being of our patients, they want to keep the dirt and dust out of the hospital. When you think of who we house in Waverley—newborns & preemies—I think I understand the wisdom in their call.) In any case, keep your walking shoes handy. The new date is late in September, and the pressure is on to open the garage and the road at the same time.

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Service Day webcast links

Wednesday, August 23rd, 2006

In case you missed the info on iUTMB today, here are the links I promised of the Employee Service Day highlights from Aug. 17. A webcast is available of the Service Pin Program, which runs about 48 minutes. (Remember you can scroll ahead. Watch anything with Dr. Richardson and don’t miss the segments about Drs. Robinson and Willis, near the end.)

I really enjoyed the  “People Show.” It only runs about 5 minutes and I bet you’ll see someone you know. You’ll need Real Player to watch either of these. Enjoy.

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